🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt State Returning Officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

57%

In the most recent polls (Pollytix, published August 12, 2026: BSW 4%; INSA, published August 10, 2026: BSW 5%), BSW sits right on the 5% threshold. With typical measurement uncertainty of ±2 percentage points, entry to parliament is fully open. No prediction market available. The AfD's dominance (42–43%) and its mobilization pressure can push smaller parties below the threshold. Historically BSW tends to underperform polls in eastern Germany under high AfD-dominance mobilization. Assessment: 57% probability of failing, derived from polling average and structural mobilization effect.

Data basis for this prediction

Pollytix Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag Umfrage: BSW 4%, AfD 43% (veröffentlicht 12. August 2026, wahlrecht.de)
INSA Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag Umfrage: BSW 5%, AfD 42% (veröffentlicht 10. August 2026, dawum.de)
AfD Sachsen-Anhalt konsistent 42–43% in allen Aug-2026-Umfragen (Pollytix/INSA)
dawum.de Umfrage-Aggregat Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: BSW Schnitt 4,5% (Stand Aug 25, 2026)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] BSW wird in keiner Quelle zu den ins Landtag eingezogenen Parteien gezählt. Die Wikipedia-Ergebnisseite der Wahl führt 6 Parteien auf (CDU 37,1 %, AfD 20,8 %, Linke 11,0 %, SPD 8,4 %, FDP 6,4 %, Grüne 5,9 %), BSW taucht nicht auf — scheiterte an der 5 %-Hürde. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.

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