🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Landtag (confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt State Returning Officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

57%

In the most recent polls (Pollytix, published August 12, 2026: BSW 4%; INSA, published August 10, 2026: BSW 5%), BSW sits right on the 5% threshold. With typical measurement uncertainty of ±2 percentage points, entry to parliament is fully open. No prediction market available. The AfD's dominance (42–43%) and its mobilization pressure can push smaller parties below the threshold. Historically BSW tends to underperform polls in eastern Germany under high AfD-dominance mobilization. Assessment: 57% probability of failing, derived from polling average and structural mobilization effect.

Data basis for this prediction

Pollytix Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag Umfrage: BSW 4%, AfD 43% (veröffentlicht 12. August 2026, wahlrecht.de)
INSA Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag Umfrage: BSW 5%, AfD 42% (veröffentlicht 10. August 2026, dawum.de)
AfD Sachsen-Anhalt konsistent 42–43% in allen Aug-2026-Umfragen (Pollytix/INSA)
dawum.de Umfrage-Aggregat Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: BSW Schnitt 4,5% (Stand Aug 25, 2026)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] BSW wird in keiner Quelle zu den ins Landtag eingezogenen Parteien gezählt. Die Wikipedia-Ergebnisseite der Wahl führt 6 Parteien auf (CDU 37,1 %, AfD 20,8 %, Linke 11,0 %, SPD 8,4 %, FDP 6,4 %, Grüne 5,9 %), BSW taucht nicht auf — scheiterte an der 5 %-Hürde. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): FDP falls below 5.0% of valid votes and fails to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.

92%

Next Week · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Liberalerna (L) falls below 4.0% and fails to clear the parliamentary threshold (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.

88%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Sep 2026