🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Russian State Duma election (September 20, 2026): Official voter turnout exceeds 60.0% of registered voters (confirmed by the Central Election Commission of Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

The 2021 State Duma election recorded an official turnout of 51.72% — a figure the Kremlin viewed as critically low. Since then, 3-day voting has been institutionalised, e-voting (u-Golosovaniye) rolled out nationwide, and intensive loyalty campaigns run under the framing of the Ukraine war. The 2024 presidential election officially hit 77.4%. Parliamentary elections historically generate less mobilisation than presidential contests; a reported figure between 60% and 70% appears realistic. Polymarket and Metaculus carry no direct quotes. Estimate based on historical Russian election data (CEC 2021, Reuters 2024, OSCE/ODIHR reports). No contradiction with open predictions on party vote shares.

Data basis for this prediction

Zentralwahlkommission Russland (CEC): Duma-Wahl 2021 – Beteiligung 51,72 %
Reuters: Russland Präsidentschaftswahl März 2024 – offizielle Beteiligung 77,4 %
OSCE/ODIHR: Wahlbeobachtungsbericht Russland Staatsduma-Wahl 2021
Russisches Innenministerium / Regierung.ru: e-Voting-Ausbau ŭ-Golosovaniye 2025–2026

Verdict: Miss

Die offizielle Wahlbeteiligung bei der russischen Staatsduma-Wahl (18.–20. September 2026) wurde von der Zentralwahlkommission mit 59,80 % angegeben – knapp unter der Schwelle von 60,0 %. Die Vorhersage verlangte ein Überschreiten von 60,0 %, was um 0,2 Prozentpunkte verfehlt wurde. Quelle: Interfax/RIA (CEC-Angaben, 21. September 2026): https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/119292/ sowie russischsprachige Berichte von Meduza und news.mail.ru.

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