Russian State Duma election (September 20, 2026): Official voter turnout exceeds 60.0% of registered voters (confirmed by the Central Election Commission of Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The 2021 State Duma election recorded an official turnout of 51.72% — a figure the Kremlin viewed as critically low. Since then, 3-day voting has been institutionalised, e-voting (u-Golosovaniye) rolled out nationwide, and intensive loyalty campaigns run under the framing of the Ukraine war. The 2024 presidential election officially hit 77.4%. Parliamentary elections historically generate less mobilisation than presidential contests; a reported figure between 60% and 70% appears realistic. Polymarket and Metaculus carry no direct quotes. Estimate based on historical Russian election data (CEC 2021, Reuters 2024, OSCE/ODIHR reports). No contradiction with open predictions on party vote shares.
Data basis for this prediction
- Zentralwahlkommission Russland (CEC): Duma-Wahl 2021 – Beteiligung 51,72 %
- Reuters: Russland Präsidentschaftswahl März 2024 – offizielle Beteiligung 77,4 %
- OSCE/ODIHR: Wahlbeobachtungsbericht Russland Staatsduma-Wahl 2021
- Russisches Innenministerium / Regierung.ru: e-Voting-Ausbau ŭ-Golosovaniye 2025–2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
President Vučić dissolved parliament in September 2026 and called snap elections for 25 October 2026. SNS won the 2023 snap elections with 46.2%. Government-aligned polls (Faktor Plus, spring 2026) show the party at ~46%; independent institute CRTA estimates support at 35.7% (July 2026) — the first time since July 2010 that an opposition-friendly aggregate has led. Polymarket prices Vučić at 66.3% to become next Prime Minister. SNS controls state media and administrative resources, conferring structural campaign advantages; however, student protests and a strengthening opposition coalition are mounting pressure. Even if the independent CRTA estimate proves more accurate than party-aligned polls, a result above 40% remains likely — SNS historically stays above this threshold even under stress.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polling (Infratest dimap, Forsa, September 13–14, 2026) shows Alliance 90/The Greens in Berlin at approx. 15.5–16.5%. The open platform prediction '>11.0%' is clearly distinct; this forecast sets the bar more precisely at '>14.0%', secured by a 1.5–2.5 percentage point buffer below the polling average. Historically, Berlin election results deviate from the last poll by on average ±1.8 points (Wahlrecht.de archive 2006–2021). Falling below 14% would require a downward deviation of at least –2.5 points — which occurs for Berlin Greens in approx. 30% of cases, implying ~70% probability of exceeding the threshold. No direct Polymarket contract for Berlin 2026 available.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The dawum.de poll aggregate (September 14, 2026, weighted average of 4 polls Aug 31–Sep 14) shows Die Linke at 21.1%, narrowly ahead of CDU (20.2%), AfD (17.7%), and Greens (15.9%). SPD at 11.6%, BSW 4.0%, FDP 3.3%. Die Linke mobilizes above-average among young and urban voters in Berlin; according to Ipsos it leads significantly among under-40s. However, exceeding 22.0% requires Die Linke to outperform its polling aggregate by ~0.9 pp on election day — possible but no more likely than its opposite. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event.