🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Russian State Duma election (September 20, 2026): LDPR (Leonid Slutsky) wins more than 7.0% of votes cast

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

68%

In the Russian State Duma election (September 18–20, 2026, three-day format), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) under Leonid Slutsky is competing as the Kremlin-licensed systemic opposition. The LDPR has obtained between 8 and 14% in every Duma election since 1993 and has always been kept above the 5% threshold. Available polls (severely censored) show the LDPR at approximately 8–9%. The party serves as an institutional outlet for nationalist sentiment and is indispensable to the Kremlin — a result below 7.0% would be politically dysfunctional. No open Polymarket market found for LDPR result; calibration based on historical results and institutional function.

Data basis for this prediction

Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election – LDPR historische Ergebnisse 8–14% seit 1993 (Stand Sep 2026)
The Moscow Times 02.07.2026: Russia Duma election overview – LDPR als Kreml-lizenzierte Opposition
ICDS.ee Analysis Sep 2026: 'Ergebnisse im Kreml entschieden' – Systemparteien über Hürde gehalten
politpro.eu/en/russia: LDPR Umfragestand ~8–9% in verfügbaren Sep-2026-Erhebungen

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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