Russian State Duma Election (September 20, 2026): KPRF (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) receives more than 15.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Election Commission Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
PolitPro Election Trend (as of September 15, 2026) puts KPRF at 15.8% — well above its historical baseline of 8–10%. In Russia's wartime environment, the Communist Party channels both regime-loyal protest voters and latent anti-war sentiment with no other legal outlet. Historically, KPRF got 18.9% in 2021 (strong protest vote) but only 13.3% in 2016. Official counts in Russia frequently deviate downward from polls due to vote manipulation favouring United Russia, creating genuine risk the formal result stays below 15.0%. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend: KPRF 15,8 % (Stand 15. September 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election – Prognosedaten
- ICDS: Analysis Russische Staatsduma-Wahlen 2026 (August 2026)
- Zentralwahlkommission Russland: Duma-Wahl 2021 – KPRF 18,9 %; 2016 – KPRF 13,3 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The aggregated Berlin election trend (as of Sep 17, 2026) shows Die Linke at 20.6% and the CDU at 19.9% — a margin of only 0.7 percentage points. Die Linke has consistently led narrowly since August 2026, benefiting from structural mobilisation advantages in left-leaning districts (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Prenzlauer Berg). The extremely tight polling margin implies significant residual uncertainty; a CDU late surge or election-day swing is realistic. No Polymarket coverage for this specific outcome.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All available polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern place BSW clearly below the five-percent threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15, 2026) at 3%, Pollytix (Sep 8–9) at 5%, with the aggregated election trend at 4.2%. Unlike Berlin, BSW lacks the organisational roots in MV; clearing the threshold would require a massive polling error across all institutes. No Polymarket coverage; calibrated on polling aggregation.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (INSA/Tagesspiegel, mid-September 2026) show BSW at exactly 5% in Berlin — right at the blocking clause. The Dawum.de aggregate trend shows steady BSW decline since spring 2026, with interim readings at 3–4%. Infratest dimap analysis suggests Berlin voters concentrate protest votes more on Die Linke than on BSW. No direct prediction market anchor. Historically, parties polling exactly at the 5% threshold slightly more often fall short: late deciders tend to consolidate around established parties. Estimated probability: ~55%.