🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Russian State Duma Election (September 20, 2026): United Russia (Единая Россия) secures more than 47.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Central Election Commission Russia or Reuters by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

83%

In the 2021 Duma election, United Russia received 49.8% (Central Election Commission). State pollsters WCIOM and FOM currently measure 48.5–51.6% support for 2026. Multiple structural factors apply vs. 2021: full state media control, absence of independent observers, war-mobilization narrative, three-day voting (Sept 18–20). No Polymarket price available; the separate open predictions for LDPR (>7%) and KPRF (>10%) are not contradicted by this finding. Calibrated at 83% based on current polling (lower bound 48.5%) and historical Duma results.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro.eu: Einiges Russland 48,5–51,6% (WCIOM/FOM, Stand Sept. 2026)
Wikipedia / Meduza.io: Duma-Wahl 2021 — Einiges Russland 49,8% (Zentralwahlkommission Sept. 2021)
Interfax.com / Meduza.io: Duma-Wahl auf 18.–20. September 2026 festgesetzt (Abruf 16.09.2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election — Wahlsystem, 5%-Hürde, aktuelle Sitzverteilung (Stand 16.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Einiges Russland erzielte laut Zentralwahlkommission (ЦИК) nach Auszählung von ~97% der Protokolle 57,83% der Parteilistenstimmen – weit über der Schwelle von 47,0%. Die Stimmauszählung war bis zum 21. September 2026 weit fortgeschritten (Endergebnis für 25. September angekündigt). Quellen: Reuters/Al Jazeera (21.09.2026), Meduza-ЦИК-Daten, Wikipedia-Artikel zur Wahl 2026. Die Vorhersage trat deutlich ein; der tatsächliche Wert übertraf sogar das Ergebnis von 2021 (49,82%) erheblich.

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