Russian State Duma election (September 18–20, 2026): LDPR receives more than 10.0% of valid party-list votes (confirmed by Russian Central Election Commission or Reuters by September 21, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 21. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 17, 2026) puts LDPR under Leonid Slutsky at 12.8% (= 63 seats). The 10.0% threshold is 2.8 points below the survey figure. Even significant state-managed count adjustments in favor of United Russia are unlikely to push LDPR below 10%, as it also holds direct-mandate seats. United Russia polled at 46% (existing >47% prediction thus at risk), KPRF at 15.8%. No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Russland, Stand 17.09.2026: LDPR 12,8 % → 63 Sitze prognostiziert
- PolitPro gesamt: United Russia 46 %, KPRF 15,8 %, LDPR 12,8 %, New People 11,5 % (17.09.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Russian legislative election (Übersicht Kandidaten & Parteiliste)
- PolitPro.eu/en/russia/election/parliament/2026 (abgerufen 18.09.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die LDPR erzielte im Endresultat 9,06 % der Parteilistenstimmen – unter der Schwelle von 10,0 % (Quelle: Wikipedia 2026 Russian legislative election, Outlook India).
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