🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 18.0% of votes cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

The Sweden Democrats (SD) achieved their best-ever 20.5% at the 2022 Riksdag election, making them the second-largest party. Current Swedish polls (Demoskop, Sifo, as of Aug/Sep 2026) show SD polling in the 18–23% range. Migration and domestic security dominate the campaign — SD's core issues. A result below 18% would be historically exceptional and would require a significant shift in voter sentiment. Existing Cassandra predictions cover S, M, V, C, KD, MP; SD's percentage has not yet been predicted.

Data basis for this prediction

Riksdag-Wahl 2022: SD 20,5% (Valmyndigheten, offizielles Ergebnis)
Demoskop/Sifo Schweden-Umfragen Aug/Sep 2026: SD 18–23%
Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahlergebnisse erwartet bis 14. Sep 2026
Buchmacher-/Prognosemodelle implizieren ~68% für SD über 18,0%

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) erzielte laut vorläufigem Ergebnis der Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 rund 17,2 % der Stimmen – damit klar unter der Vorhersage-Schwelle von 18,0 %. SD verlor damit deutlich gegenüber dem Rekordergebnis 2022 (20,5 %) und erlitt den stärksten prozentualen Rückgang aller Parteien. Die Partei landete auf Platz drei hinter Sozialdemokraten (28,4 %) und Moderaterna (18,1 %). Das amtliche Endergebnis steht noch aus, da Auslands- und Vorabstimmen noch ausgezählt werden; eine Verschiebung über 18 % gilt jedoch als rechnerisch nahezu ausgeschlossen. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Swedish general election), ZDF heute, politpro.eu.

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