🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) Win More Than 19.0% of Votes (Confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Aggregated polls from August 22, 2026 show SD at 19.3% (PolitPro), 20.1% (Fred Cornell/valkoll2026.se), and 19.9% (Polara) – consistently above the 19% threshold for months. SD is the second-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (31.0%), well ahead of Moderaterna (17.6%). Historically, SD results have slightly exceeded poll estimates ('Shy SD' effect). No Polymarket quote available. Not covered by existing open predictions (only S >30% and M >18% are open).

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro.eu: Sweden Election Trend – SD 19,3 % (22. Aug. 2026)
fredcornell.com / valkoll2026.se: SD 20,1 % (Aug 2026)
Polara.se: Swedish election polls 2026 – SD 19,9 % (Aug 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Laut offiziellen Ergebnissen der Valmyndigheten (val.se) und übereinstimmenden Berichten (Wikipedia, PolitPro, SVT) erzielte Sverigedemokraterna am 13. September 2026 nur 17,5 % der Stimmen (ca. 1.176.834 Stimmen, 62 Mandate) – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 19,0 %. SD verlor damit rund 3 Prozentpunkte gegenüber 2022 (20,5 %) und fiel auf Platz 3, da Moderaterna mit 19,9 % an ihnen vorbeizog. Die Umfragen (19,3–20,1 %) lagen erheblich zu hoch; der erhoffte 'Shy SD'-Effekt blieb aus oder kehrte sich sogar um. Quellen: val.se/english/election-results/elections-to-the-riksdag-and-regional-and-municipal-councils/election-results-2026, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election

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