🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) achieve more than 19.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 16, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

68%

Election night projections showed Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L) at 46.8–47.0% combined. Subtracting estimated shares for Moderaterna (~18%), KD (~5%), Liberalerna (~4–5%) implies an SD total of approximately 19–21%. SD won 20.5% in 2022; 2026 polls consistently placed SD at 18–22%. No direct Polymarket market for SD vote share. Existing open forecasts cover M, V, L, and MP — SD is the only Tidö party without a Cassandra prediction.

Data basis for this prediction

Wikipedia / val.se: Riksdag-Wahl Schweden 2026 – Tidö-Parteien 46,8–47,0 %, Rot-Grün 51,3 % (Hochrechnung Wahlnacht, 13. September 2026)
Valmyndigheten (offizielle Ergebnisse 2022): Sverigedemokraterna 20,5 % der abgegebenen Stimmen, 73 Sitze
Umfragen 2026 (diverse schwedische Institute): SD konstant 18–22 %, zuletzt August–September 2026

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) erhielten laut mehreren übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu, SVT Nyheter, Valmyndigheten-Daten) ca. 17,2–17,5 % der Stimmen bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 – und damit klar unter der Vorhersage-Schwelle von >19,0 %. Dies war das erste Mal seit SDs Einzug in den Riksdag 2010, dass die Partei Stimmenanteile verlor (2022: 20,5 %). Die Tidö-Rechtskoalition gewann insgesamt nur 173 von 349 Sitzen und verlor die Mehrheit knapp gegen dasItte-Links-Lager (176 Sitze). Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, Al Jazeera 15.09.2026.

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