Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) achieve more than 19.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 16, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Election night projections showed Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L) at 46.8–47.0% combined. Subtracting estimated shares for Moderaterna (~18%), KD (~5%), Liberalerna (~4–5%) implies an SD total of approximately 19–21%. SD won 20.5% in 2022; 2026 polls consistently placed SD at 18–22%. No direct Polymarket market for SD vote share. Existing open forecasts cover M, V, L, and MP — SD is the only Tidö party without a Cassandra prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wikipedia / val.se: Riksdag-Wahl Schweden 2026 – Tidö-Parteien 46,8–47,0 %, Rot-Grün 51,3 % (Hochrechnung Wahlnacht, 13. September 2026)
- Valmyndigheten (offizielle Ergebnisse 2022): Sverigedemokraterna 20,5 % der abgegebenen Stimmen, 73 Sitze
- Umfragen 2026 (diverse schwedische Institute): SD konstant 18–22 %, zuletzt August–September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
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