Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 19.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls consistently show SD above 19%: Indikator Opinion (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; PolitPro trend (as of September 11): 19.5%; Ipsos (May 2026): 20.0%; Demoskop (August 24): 18.3%. Polling average approximately 19.3%. SD already achieved 20.5% in the 2022 election. The 19.0% threshold is 0.3 points below the current average and represents a conservative calibration. Prediction is consistent with the existing open forecast that S (~30%) will win more mandates than SD. No prediction markets available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Indikator Opinion Poll 4. September 2026: SD 19,3 % (PolitPro.eu/Sweden)
- PolitPro Trend Riksdag 2026: SD 19,5 % als zweitstärkste Partei (Stand 11.09.2026, politpro.eu)
- Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Endergebnis: SD 20,5 % (Valmyndigheten.se)
- Demoskop Poll 24. August 2026: SD 18,3 % (PolitPro.eu)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SVT Valu Exit Poll: Sverigedemokraterna bei 17,2 % – unter der 19,0-%-Hürde (Abstand 1,8 Prozentpunkte). Quelle: The Local / SVT Exit Poll.
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