Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Socialdemokraterna (S) becomes the largest single party and receives more seats than Sverigedemokraterna (SD) (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
·
Predicted for 13. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (PolitPro, Sep 2026) show Socialdemokraterna (S) at ~28.5% and Sverigedemokraterna (SD) at ~19.5% — a 9 percentage point lead. Seat projection: S ~104 seats vs SD ~71 seats. This prediction is consistent with open predictions (S >27.5% vote share, red-green bloc wins majority) but goes further in explicitly quantifying the party gap. An outcome where SD overtakes S would be a historical surprise.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Sweden 2026: S 28,5 %, SD 19,5 % (Umfrage-Aggregat Sep 2026)
- PolitPro Sitzprojektion: S 104 Sitze, SD 71 Sitze (Sep 2026)
- Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026 (offizielles Wahlamt)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SVT Valu: Socialdemokraterna 28,4 % vs. Moderaterna 18,1 % vs. Sverigedemokraterna 17,2 % – S ist klar stärkste Einzelpartei. Quelle: The Local / SVT Exit Poll.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.