🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Socialdemokraterna (S) receives more than 28.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

Aggregated polls (Novus, Demoskop, Verian, Ipsos, Indikator, SCB) show Socialdemokraterna stable at 31.0% (August 2026). The 28% threshold is 3 percentage points below the weighted average — a buffer that remains achievable even under an unfavourable polling error. Historical baseline: S received 30.3% at the 2022 Riksdag election, close to polling. The red-green bloc (S+V+MP) is tied with the centre-right bloc at 45.8% each — an extremely tight race that does not fundamentally threaten S's base vote. No direct Polymarket market for this specific threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Sweden Election Polls aggregiert August 2026: Socialdemokraterna 31,0% (politpro.eu)
Valkoll2026.se: S führt mit 31%, SD ca. 20%, Moderaterna ca. 17,5% (valkoll2026.se, Aug 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – Wahltermin 13. September 2026, historischer Basiswert S 30,3% (2022)

Verdict: Hit

Socialdemokraterna erzielte laut Valmyndigheten 28,02 % der abgegebenen Stimmen (99 Mandate) – knapp, aber klar oberhalb der Schwelle von 28,0 %. Die Vorhersage ist damit formal eingetreten. Allerdings war der Puffer hauchdünn: Das Ergebnis lag 2,3 Prozentpunkte unter dem Wert von 2022 (30,3 %) und rund 3 Punkte unter den August-Umfragen (~31 %), was zeigt, dass ein typischer Polling-Fehler die Vorhersage beinahe zu Fall gebracht hätte. Quelle: val.se (Valmyndigheten, offizielle Ergebnisseite 2026).

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