🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Social Democrats (S) win the most seats and become the largest party in the Riksdag (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

90%

The latest PolitPro election trend (6 Sep 2026) shows S at 28.7% in first place — ~9 percentage points ahead of Sverigedemokraterna (19.5%) and 11pp ahead of Moderaterna (17.5%). Seat projection gives S 105 of 349 seats. A second-place party closing a 9pp gap in 5 days would be historically unprecedented. No Polymarket market for the 'largest party' outcome specifically. Distinct from the open prediction 'S > 28.0%': this asks about seat rank, not vote share.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Schweden: S 28,7 %, SD 19,5 %, M 17,5 % (Stand 6.9.2026)
PolitPro Sitzprojektion: S 105 / SD 72 / M 64 Mandate (Stand 6.9.2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – opinion polling
val.se: 2026 elections – Riksdag (Schwedische Wahlbehörde)

Verdict: Hit

Socialdemokraterna (S) wurden bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 tatsächlich zur stärksten Kraft. Laut offiziellen Quellen (Valmyndigheten/val.se, Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', Riksdagen.se) gewann S rund 100 Mandate und war in allen Regionen stärkste Partei. Das Mitte-Links-Bündnis unter Magdalena Andersson errang 176 von 349 Mandaten (vs. 173 für den rechten Block). Die Vorhersage – S als mandatsstärkste Partei im Riksdag – ist klar eingetreten.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026