Swedish Riksdag election (Sept 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) wins more than 18.0% of votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Latest polls show Moderaterna (M) between 17.2% and 18.4%: PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 9): 17.6%; Indikator Opinion (Sept 4): 18.4%; Infostat (Sept 1): 17.5%; Demoskop (Aug 24): 17.2%. The 18.0% threshold sits at the upper quartile of this range. M is the third-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (S, ~27–29%) and Sverigedemokraterna (SD, ~19–20%). Historically, M voters show above-average turnout on election day, which could produce a modest uplift. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this sub-question. Own estimate: 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend, 9. September 2026: Moderaterna 17,6 % (politpro.eu)
- Indikator Opinion Umfrage, 4. September 2026: Moderaterna 18,4 % (politpro.eu)
- Infostat Umfrage, 1. September 2026: Moderaterna 17,5 %; Demoskop 24. August: 17,2 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
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✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.