Swedish Riksdag Election (Sept. 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) receive more than 18.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (August 2026) put the center-right governing bloc at ~45% total. Moderaterna scored 19.1% in 2022. Current Sifo/Novus polls show M at 16–19%, making 18% a borderline threshold. If SD is at ~20% and bloc total is 45%, M+KD+L = 25%; with KD ~5.5% and L ~4.5%, M computes to ~15–16%. Only if the bloc outperforms (≥46%) or SD underperforms (<19%) does >18% for M become plausible. Polymarket has no specific Moderaterna question.
Data basis for this prediction
- Moderaterna Wahlergebnis 2022: 19,1 % (Valmyndigheten)
- Sifo/Novus Umfragen Aug 2026: M bei 16–19 %, Lager gesamt ~45 % (Wikipedia, Swedish election polling 2026)
- Plattformprognose: SD >19 % bei Riksdag-Wahl 13.09.2026 (Cassandra.news, offen)
Verdict: Hit
Moderaterna erzielte laut Valmyndigheten 19,8 % der Stimmen bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 (70 Mandate) – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 18,0 %. Damit trat die Vorhersage ein. Entscheidend war, dass SD mit nur 17,5 % schwächer abschnitt als die in der Prognose angenommenen ~20 % und das Gesamtlager stark genug war, um M Raum für ein zweistelliges Ergebnis nahe 20 % zu lassen. Quellen: val.se (Valmyndigheten), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', valkoll2026.se.
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