Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) receive more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
In the 2022 Riksdag election, Moderaterna received 19.1%. Polls for August/September 2026 place M at 17–20%. Although SD has overtaken them as the largest right-wing party and the left-green bloc is forecast to win a majority per existing open predictions, a collapse below 16% is historically unlikely. No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Riksdag-Wahl 2022: Moderaterna 19,1 % (Valmyndigheten)
- Umfrageschnitt Schweden August/September 2026: M ca. 17–20 % (Pollofpolls.se)
- Wahlprogramm Moderaterna eingereicht (Valmyndigheten, September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Two recent polls show Die Linke in Berlin well above the 18% threshold: Forsa (August 4–18, 2026) at 22%, INSA (August 7–13, 2026) at 19%. In Berlin, Die Linke has a strong base (East Berlin strongholds). Headwind comes from BSW as a competing party that could siphon votes on the left fringe. Both polls are clearly above the threshold; calibrated at ~65%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (PolitPro, Sep 2026) show Socialdemokraterna (S) at ~28.5% and Sverigedemokraterna (SD) at ~19.5% — a 9 percentage point lead. Seat projection: S ~104 seats vs SD ~71 seats. This prediction is consistent with open predictions (S >27.5% vote share, red-green bloc wins majority) but goes further in explicitly quantifying the party gap. An outcome where SD overtakes S would be a historical surprise.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Metaculus (September 2026) gives Republicans ~59% probability of Senate majority; Polymarket and RealClearPolling confirm ~59–62%. Of 35 seats up for election, Republicans currently hold 53 vs. 47 Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of +4 seats — the Senate map favors Republicans (23 R seats vs. 12 D seats in play). Consistent with open Cassandra prediction 'Democrats win House with ≥6 net seats': a split Congress with Democratic House and Republican Senate is the most likely scenario (Metaculus: 49.2%).