Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Moderaterna (M) exceed 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
·
Predicted for 13. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Sweden's Moderaterna (M) poll at 17.5% in current aggregates (August/September 2026), down from 19.1% in the 2022 election. Falling below 16.0% would require a 1.5 pp downswing from the current poll mean — more than one standard deviation in Swedish polling history. No Polymarket market available; based on polling aggregation and historical polling error, we estimate ~72%.
Data basis for this prediction
- politpro.eu: Schweden Umfrage-Aggregation 2026 – Moderaterna 17,5 % (Stand September 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – polling data (Riksdag-Wahl Polls 2026)
- Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Ergebnis: Moderaterna 19,1 % (Valmyndigheten, 11. September 2022)
- Historische Polling-Abweichungen Schweden: Standardfehler ±2–3 % (politpro.eu / Sweden Demoskop)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.