🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Moderata samlingspartiet (M) receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Current polls (Demoskop/Ipsos, as of ca. 20 August 2026) show Moderata samlingspartiet (M) at approximately 16.8%, down from 19.1% in the 2022 Riksdag election. The 16.0% threshold is only 0.8 percentage points below the current polling average – not secured given typical ±2-3% polling uncertainty. M is the leading force of the center-right Alliance bloc. Current open forecasts see Sverigedemokraterna (SD) above 20% and Socialdemokraterna (S) above 30%, structurally pushing M to third or fourth rank – further evidence of losses vs. 2022. Metaculus/Polymarket: no specific M markets found; internal model implies ~62% for M above 16.0%.

Data basis for this prediction

Riksdag-Umfragen Aug 2026: M ~16,8% (Demoskop/Ipsos via politpro.eu, ca. 20.08.2026)
Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Ergebnis: M 19,1% (Valmyndigheten, 11.09.2022)
Schweden Wikipedia: 2026 Riksdag election – aktuelle Prognosen SD >20%, S >30% (Wikipedia, Aug 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Moderata samlingspartiet (M) erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl vom 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten rund 19,9% der Stimmen – und damit deutlich mehr als die Schwelle von 16,0%. Die Partei legte gegenüber 2022 (19,1%) sogar leicht zu, statt wie in den Umfragen erwartet zu fallen. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, riksdagen.se/en/news/the-2026-elections/

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