Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Miljöpartiet (MP) clears the 4% threshold and enters parliament
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Miljöpartiet polls at 6.8–7.9% across all major Swedish pollsters (Demoskop, Novus, PolitPro as of August 2026) — nearly 3 percentage points above the 4% threshold. Swedish polling accuracy has historically been within ±2 points of the final result. The open prediction requiring an S+V+MP majority also implicitly assumes MP in parliament. Calibrated probability of crossing the threshold: ~88%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Demoskop Aug 13–24, 2026: Miljöpartiet 6,8%
- Novus Aug 3–16, 2026: Miljöpartiet 7,9%
- PolitPro Sweden Trend (Stand 2. September 2026): Miljöpartiet 7,1%
- Wikipedia – Opinion Polling for the 2026 Swedish General Election (Stand 2. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Miljöpartiet erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen 6,2 % der Stimmen und gewann 22 Sitze im Reichstag – deutlich über der 4-%-Sperrklausel. Die Vorhersage ist klar eingetreten. Quellen: val.se (offizielle Wahlbehörde), politpro.eu, Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Schwedischen Reichstag 2026'.
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