🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet (MP) exceeds 6.0% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

Latest polls show Miljöpartiet consistently between 6.8% (Indikator Opinion, Sep 4) and 7.5% (Infostat, Sep 1); PolitPro Election Trend aggregates at 7.4% (27 seats) as of September 12. The 6.0% threshold is ~1.4 points below the polling mid-point. Historically MP has always cleared 6% since 2010 – the sole exception was 2022 (5.1%). Urban climate-voter mobilization and tactical voter returns support the result. No prediction market with this threshold available.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Schweden: MP 7,4 % / 27 Mandate (Stand 12. September 2026, politpro.eu)
Indikator Opinion poll: MP 6,8 % (Feldarbeit abgeschlossen 4. September 2026, politpro.eu)
Infostat poll: MP 7,5 % (Feldarbeit abgeschlossen 1. September 2026, politpro.eu)
Wikipedia: Miljöpartiet Ergebnis 2022: 5,1 % (historische Minimalreferenz)

Verdict: Hit

Miljöpartiet erzielte laut dem vorläufigen amtlichen Ergebnis der schwedischen Wahlbehörde (val.se) 6,1 % der Stimmen (389.609 Stimmen, 22 Mandate) bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 – damit wurde die Schwelle von 6,0 % knapp überschritten. Das Ergebnis lag jedoch deutlich unter den Umfrageaggregaten (~7,4 %), was auf eine leichte Mobilisierungsschwäche im Vergleich zu den Prognosen hindeutet. Quellen: val.se (resultat.val.se/val2026/RD), SVT Valresultat 2026, aktuellhallbarhet.se

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