🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet (MP) secures more than 5.5% of votes cast (confirmed via Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

82%

Current polls show Miljöpartiet clearly above the 5.5% threshold: Infostat (September 1, 2026): 7.5%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 6.8%; PolitPro election trend: 7.2%. The average is 1.7 pp above the prediction threshold. Swedish polls have shown typical deviations of ±1.5-2.0 pp in recent election cycles. Even in a pessimistic scenario (-1.5 pp from poll average), MP would sit at ~5.7% and clear the threshold. Residual uncertainty lies in mobilization effects from other green-adjacent parties. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found for this threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

Infostat-Umfrage: Miljöpartiet 7,5 % (politpro.eu, 1. September 2026)
Demoskop-Umfrage: Miljöpartiet 6,8 % (politpro.eu, 24. August 2026)
PolitPro-Wahltrend Schweden: Miljöpartiet 7,2 % (politpro.eu, Stand 3. September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Miljöpartiet erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 offiziell 6,1 % der Stimmen und gewann damit 22 Riksdag-Sitze. Das Ergebnis liegt klar über der Vorhersageschwelle von 5,5 %. Quellen: Wikipedia ('2026 Swedish general election'), PolitPro (politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026) sowie die schwedische Wahlbehörde Valmyndigheten (val.se). Das Ergebnis fiel etwas niedriger aus als der Umfrrageschnitt von ~7,2 % – aber immer noch deutlich über der Schwelle, sodass das pessimistische Szenario (–1,5 pp) nie eingetreten ist.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026