Swedish Riksdag Election (Sept. 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet de Gröna (MP) clears the 4% threshold and enters the Riksdag (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by Sept. 14, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Novus Väljarbarometer September 2026: Miljöpartiet at 7.8% (−0.1 pp vs. August). PolitPro election trend: 7.3%. SCB May 2026 survey: 6.6% ± 0.7%. All institutes sit well clear of the 4% threshold — even the lower confidence interval (~5.9%) comfortably exceeds the barrier. The party benefits from heightened climate-voter interest in 2026; no regular survey places MP anywhere near the 4% floor. No Polymarket contract found specifically for MP; estimated probability ~88%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Novus Väljarbarometer September 2026: Miljöpartiet 7,8 %
- PolitPro.eu Sweden election trend: Miljöpartiet 7,3 %, Stand September 2026
- SCB Partisympatiundersökningen maj 2026: Miljöpartiet 6,6 % ± 0,7 %
Verdict: Hit
Miljöpartiet erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten / SVT ca. 6,1–6,4 % der Stimmen und gewann 22 Sitze im Riksdag. Die 4-%-Sperrklausel wurde damit deutlich überschritten. Das Ergebnis liegt leicht unter den Umfragewerten (Novus 7,8 %, PolitPro 7,3 %), aber klar über der Hürde. Quellen: val.se (Election results 2026), SVT valresultat 2026, Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election'.
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