🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet de Gröna (MP) receives more than 7.5% of votes cast

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

73%

Latest Novus poll (September 6–8, 2026) shows Miljöpartiet at 8.8% — well above the threshold and the 4% electoral barrier. The Red-Green bloc (S+MP+V) is predicted (open) to achieve ≥175 seats, which structurally requires a strong MP result. Lines.com implies 88% for the Red-Green bloc winning. Historically MP has exceeded 6% in every Riksdag election since 2002, and topped 7% in 3 of the last 5 elections. No Polymarket market found for this specific threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

Novus-Umfrage Riksdag Sept 6–8, 2026: MP 8,8 % (novus.se / politpro.eu)
Lines.com Swedish Election 2026: Röd-grön-Block 88 % implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit (lines.com, Sept 2026)
Wikipedia Opinion Polling 2026 Swedish election (Aggregate Sept 2026)
Historische MP-Ergebnisse Riksdag 2002–2022: valmyndigheten.se

Verdict: Miss

Miljöpartiet erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu, val.se) 6,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 7,5 %. Die Vorwahlumfragen (u.a. Novus 8,8 %) haben das tatsächliche Abschneiden erheblich überschätzt. MP gewann 18 Sitze, während die Mitte-Links-Koalition insgesamt 176 Sitze errang. Das finale Ergebnis lag rund 2,6 Prozentpunkte unter dem gesetzten Schwellenwert. Quellen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election, https://politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, https://www.val.se/english/election-results/elections-to-the-riksdag-and-municipal-councils/election-results-2026

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