Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet de Gröna (MP) receives more than 7.5% of votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Latest Novus poll (September 6–8, 2026) shows Miljöpartiet at 8.8% — well above the threshold and the 4% electoral barrier. The Red-Green bloc (S+MP+V) is predicted (open) to achieve ≥175 seats, which structurally requires a strong MP result. Lines.com implies 88% for the Red-Green bloc winning. Historically MP has exceeded 6% in every Riksdag election since 2002, and topped 7% in 3 of the last 5 elections. No Polymarket market found for this specific threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Novus-Umfrage Riksdag Sept 6–8, 2026: MP 8,8 % (novus.se / politpro.eu)
- Lines.com Swedish Election 2026: Röd-grön-Block 88 % implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit (lines.com, Sept 2026)
- Wikipedia Opinion Polling 2026 Swedish election (Aggregate Sept 2026)
- Historische MP-Ergebnisse Riksdag 2002–2022: valmyndigheten.se
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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