🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Swedish Riksdag Election (13 September 2026): Liberalerna (L) fails to clear the 4.0% threshold and does not enter the Riksdag

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

55%

Polls swing from 2.5% (Infostat, Sept 1) to 4.7% (Novus, Sept 11) — both near the 4% threshold. Most September surveys placed Liberalerna below the mark. They barely qualified in 2022 (4.72%). A slight lean toward failing: ~55%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infostat Väljarbarometer 1. September 2026: Liberalerna 2,5 %
Novus Väljarbarometer 11. September 2026: Liberalerna 4,7 %
PolitPro.eu – Sweden 2026 election poll aggregation (Stand: 11. September 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Liberalerna schaffte es entgegen der Vorhersage, die 4%-Sperrklausel zu überwinden. Laut mehreren übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia 2026 Swedish general election, nordisch.info, politpro.eu) erzielte die Partei ca. 5,0 % der Stimmen (Exit-Poll-Daten nach 94 % der ausgezählten Stimmen) und zog mit rund 16–19 Sitzen in den Riksdag ein. Damit gewann die rechte Regierungskoalition 173 Sitze gegenüber 176 für das linke Lager. Die Vorhersage eines Scheiterns (55 % Wahrscheinlichkeit) trat nicht ein – Liberalerna konnte trotz schwacher Umfragewerte (z.T. 2–2,5 % in einzelnen Erhebungen) mobilisieren und die Schwelle klar überwinden, wie es 2022 (4,72 %) ebenfalls in letzter Minute gelungen war. Quellen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election, https://www.nordisch.info/schweden/wahl-in-schweden-rot-gruen-fuehrt-nach-auszaehlung-rechte-enttaeuscht/

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026