Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Kristdemokraterna (KD) secures more than 4.0% of votes and enters the Riksdag (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
·
Predicted for 13. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
KD stood at 6.6% in the PolitPro poll aggregate (Sep 11, 2026); individual Sifo/Ipsos/Demoskop polls showed 5.8%–8.5%. KD holds nearly a 3-percentage-point buffer above the 4% threshold. Unlike Liberalerna (L) — existing open Cassandra prediction: L fails — KD's conservative-Christian voter segment shows historically high party loyalty. KD has cleared 4% at every Riksdag election since 2006, including a close 4.6% in 2014. Even with a 3 pp downside polling error, KD remains above 4%. Results expected after 21:00 CET (Valmyndigheten).
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Schweden-Aggregat: KD 6,6 % (Stand 11.09.2026, politpro.eu/en/sweden)
- Sifo/Ipsos/Demoskop Aug–Sep 2026: KD 5,8 %–8,5 % (Wikipedia: Opinion polling 2026 Swedish general election)
- Rechtsblock ~47,7 % / Linksblock ~50,5 % – KD integraler Rechtsblock-Bestandteil (Al Jazeera live coverage, 13.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SVT Valu (Exit Poll) zeigt Kristdemokraterna bei 6,1 % – deutlich über der 4,0-%-Sperrklausel. Quelle: SVT Nyheter Valu-Ergebnis.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.