Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Centerpartiet (C) wins more than 6.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
According to the latest Indikator Opinion poll (fieldwork to September 4, 2026), Centerpartiet stands at 7.3%. Novus (September 7, 2026) also places C above 6%. The party is part of the Tidö governing coalition and is benefiting from liberal-democratic voters leaving Liberalerna (L, currently ~2.2%). None of the last five polls show C below 6.0%. Swedish polls typically deviate by ~1.5–2 percentage points on average — even with maximum downward deviation, C would remain just above the threshold. No Polymarket data for this party; own estimate: ~76%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Indikator Opinion poll Sweden, fieldwork to Sep 4, 2026: Centerpartiet 7.3% (PolitPro.eu)
- Novus opinion poll Sweden, Sep 7, 2026: opposition bloc 50.3% vs. Tidö govt bloc 47.9% (PolitPro.eu)
- 2026 Swedish general election polling aggregate (Wikipedia / dawum.de, Sep 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.