🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Incumbent Tidö coalition (M+SD+KD+L) loses its parliamentary majority (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

Current polls project only ~147 seats for the Tidö bloc (M+SD+KD+L) — well short of the 175 needed for a majority in the 349-seat Riksdag. The open Cassandra forecast that Liberalerna (L) fails the 4% threshold would weaken the bloc further. At the same time the left camp (S+V+MP+C) is collectively much stronger per current polls. Apollo News confirms: 'right-wing camp gains ground but remains behind majority'. No counter-prediction in the existing list.

Data basis for this prediction

Schwedische Riksdag-Umfragen Sep 2026: Tidö-Bloc ~147 Sitze (politpro.eu / Wikipedia DE, 4. September 2026)
Apollo News: 'Rechtes Lager legt zu, Mehrheit bleibt fraglich' (Apollo News, ca. 3. September 2026)
Offene Cassandra-Prognose: Liberalerna (L) scheitert an 4 %-Hürde (Cassandra.news)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 erzielte die Tidö-Koalition (M+SD+KD+L) lediglich 173 von 349 Sitzen — damit deutlich unter der absoluten Mehrheit von 175 Sitzen. Das links-zentrale Oppositionslager (S+V+MP+C) erreichte 176 Sitze und eine knappe parlamentarische Mehrheit. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Swedish general election), Valmyndigheten/val.se (offizielle Wahlergebnisse), Riksdag-Pressemitteilung (19. September 2026). Einschränkung: Die in der Vorhersage genannte Schätzung von ~147 Sitzen für den Tidö-Bloc war zu pessimistisch (tatsächlich 173), und Liberalerna scheiterte entgegen der Erwartung nicht an der 4%-Hürde (19 Sitze). Der Kernsachverhalt — Verlust der parlamentarischen Mehrheit — trat jedoch eindeutig ein.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026