🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Republican Party (USA) retains Senate majority after the midterm elections (November 3, 2026) with at least 51 of 100 seats (confirmed by AP or Reuters)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

56%

Polymarket shows 44% for 'Democrats win both chambers' (Sweep) and 41% for 'Republican Senate / Democratic House'. Scenarios with a Republican Senate total ~56% (41% split + ~15% Republican Sweep). Structurally, Democrats defend far more Senate seats in competitive swing states in 2026 (Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona), while Republicans face limited seat exposure. Senate map historically favors the party defending fewer seats. Polymarket anchor implies ~56% for Republican Senate retention.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Democrats Sweep 44%, Republican Senate / Democratic House 41% (Stand 26.07.2026)
Kalshi 2026 House Elections – 270towin.com / Kalshi
Cook Political Report: Senatskarte 2026, Demokraten verteidigen mehr kompetitive Sitze

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 19.0% of votes cast in the Swedish Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Latest Novus poll (July 6–19, 2026): SD at 20.4%. SD has grown consistently since the 2018 election (17.5%) and 2022 (20.5%), stable at current levels. Dominant election themes — crime, gang violence, immigration — are SD core issues that continue to mobilize voters. The 19.0% threshold is well below the polling average (20.4%), allowing for a ±2 percentage point polling error buffer. No explicit Kalshi/Polymarket market found; calibrated based on polling range May–July 2026 (19–21%).

70%

Next Month · Predicted for 13. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Thorsten Frei (CDU) confirmed as new CDU/CSU parliamentary group chairman (29 July 2026)

Polymarket prices Frei's election at 98%. Chancellor Merz nominated his chancellery chief on 22 July 2026 to succeed resigned Jens Spahn (surrogacy controversy). No rival candidates entered; the CDU/CSU group votes at a special session on 29 July. Bloomberg reported the nomination as a done deal. Verification: CDU press release after the parliamentary group session, 29 July 2026.

97%

Next Week · Predicted for 29. Jul 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Bev Craig (Labour) wins Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election (30 July 2026)

Polymarket prices Bev Craig (Labour) at 99%. The by-election — the largest in British history, with over 2 million eligible voters — was triggered when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield parliamentary seat. Reform UK's Sian Astley and the Green candidate Geraldine Coggins are considered long shots. Labour has held Greater Manchester uninterruptedly since 2017.

98%

Next Week · Predicted for 30. Jul 2026