Republican Party (USA) retains Senate majority after the midterm elections (November 3, 2026) with at least 51 of 100 seats (confirmed by AP or Reuters)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket shows 44% for 'Democrats win both chambers' (Sweep) and 41% for 'Republican Senate / Democratic House'. Scenarios with a Republican Senate total ~56% (41% split + ~15% Republican Sweep). Structurally, Democrats defend far more Senate seats in competitive swing states in 2026 (Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona), while Republicans face limited seat exposure. Senate map historically favors the party defending fewer seats. Polymarket anchor implies ~56% for Republican Senate retention.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Democrats Sweep 44%, Republican Senate / Democratic House 41% (Stand 26.07.2026)
- Kalshi 2026 House Elections – 270towin.com / Kalshi
- Cook Political Report: Senatskarte 2026, Demokraten verteidigen mehr kompetitive Sitze
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
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✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.