Republican Party (GOP) retains majority in the US Senate at the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026?' shows a near-dead-heat: Democrats 51%, Republicans ~50% (as of September 2, 2026). GOP defends 22 of its current 53 seats; Democrats need net +4 seats from six genuine tossups (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada). Historically midterms hurt the governing party, but the GOP's 53-seat starting position provides a buffer. Polycopy: 'Divided Government with Republican Senate' as second most probable scenario (35.5%). Note: Complementary to open prediction 'Democrats win House'.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026?': Demokraten 51% / Republikaner ~50% (Stand 2.9.2026)
- Polycopy Polymarket Midterms: 'Divided Government, Republican Senate' = 35,5% (Stand 2.9.2026)
- TradeTheOutcome.com: Polymarket US-Senat 2026 Odds-Analyse (Stand September 2026)
- Predictmarketcap.com: Senat 2026 – aktuelle Odds (Stand 2.9.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.