Republican Party retains its majority in the US Senate at the midterm elections on November 3, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket assigns a 56.5% probability to Republicans retaining the Senate majority at the US midterms on November 3, 2026. Of the 35 seats up, Republicans defend 22; Democrats need a net gain of 4 for a majority. Maine is the key swing state (Polymarket: 64% Democrats). Despite the Trump administration's budget reconciliation success (Senate passage early July 2026, VP Vance tie-breaking vote), the political landscape remains polarized; inflation (CPI 4.2% YoY) and Iran-conflict energy price pressure are headwinds. Polymarket sees 56.5% GOP; own calibration without deviation: 57%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: '2026 Midterm Elections – Senate Control': Republikanische Mehrheit 56,5 % (Stand 12.07.2026)
- Polymarket: 'Maine Senate Election Winner': 64 % Demokraten (Stand 12.07.2026)
- NACo: 'US Senate passes amended reconciliation bill' (Anfang Juli 2026)
- actionnetwork.com: Polymarket Election Markets – Senate Odds 2026 (abgerufen 12.07.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.