LDP/Komeito loses its majority in Japan's House of Councillors (Upper House election, July 20, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
·
Predicted for 20. July 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
On July 20, 2026, Japanese voters elect the House of Councillors (Upper House). LDP/Komeito hold a slim upper-house coalition majority. CSIS analysis diagnoses 'prolonged instability' following the LDP's lower-house majority loss in October 2024. Despite PM Takaichi's landslide Lower House win in February 2026 (315/465 seats), headwinds remain: opposition parties (CDP, Nippon Ishin, Sanseito) exploit the ongoing LDP funds scandal (>50% of respondents cite it, Kyodo poll). No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found; structural assessment: ~68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wikipedia: Japanische Sangiin-Wahl am 20. Juli 2026 (Termin bestätigt)
- CSIS: 'Japan's Upper House Election: Prolonged Instability' (Analyse Juli 2026)
- Kyodo News / CSIS: >50 % der Befragten nennen LDP-Finanzskandal als Wahlmotiv (Juli 2026)
- Bloomberg Graphics: Japan Takaichi Lower-House-Sieg Februar 2026 – 315 von 465 Sitzen
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Koalition hält gesamt nur 122 der 248 Sitze (75 behaltene + 47 neu gewonnene) – verfehlt die absolute Mehrheit von 125. Historisch: erste Mehrheitsverlust in beiden Kammern seit LDP-Gründung 1955. Quelle: Nippon.com, East Asia Forum
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.