🏛️ Politics · Next Year

German Bundestag passes legislation reintroducing mandatory military service for men by September 30, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

29%

The Merz government (CDU/CSU–SPD, since March 2025) made Bundeswehr modernization a top priority. Defense Minister Pistorius developed a selective service model (Swedish-style) in 2025. The coalition agreement includes mandatory service reform options. A Bundestag vote by September 30 requires completion of cabinet draft, all readings, and potential Bundesrat involvement. Obstacle: major German legislation typically takes 9-18 months. No Metaculus/Polymarket market. Estimated P: ~29%.

Data basis for this prediction

Koalitionsvertrag CDU/CSU–SPD 2025: Bundeswehr-Reform und Wehrpflicht-Optionen verankert (Bundesregierung.de, März 2025)
Bundesverteidigungsminister Pistorius: Selektivmodell nach schwedischem Vorbild (BMVg, 2025)
Bundestag: Kein entsprechendes Wehrpflicht-Gesetz bislang verabschiedet (Bundestag.de, Stand Juli 2026)
Politischer Zeitplan: Koalition anstrebt Beschluss vor Herbst-Etat-Runde (Handelsblatt/Spiegel, 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Der Bundestag beschloss am 5. Dezember 2025 das 'Gesetz zur Modernisierung des Wehrdienstes', das verpflichtende Musterungen für 18-jährige Männer einführt – der Dienst selbst bleibt jedoch ausdrücklich freiwillig. Die Bundesregierung bestätigt: 'Es gibt (noch) keine Wehrpflicht.' Kein verpflichtender Wehrdienst (Wehrpflicht) wiedereingeführt. Quellen: Bundesregierung FAQ, Tagesspiegel, Evangelisch.de, Bundestag.

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