German Bundestag passes legislation reintroducing mandatory military service for men by September 30, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
·
Predicted for 30. September 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
The Merz government (CDU/CSU–SPD, since March 2025) made Bundeswehr modernization a top priority. Defense Minister Pistorius developed a selective service model (Swedish-style) in 2025. The coalition agreement includes mandatory service reform options. A Bundestag vote by September 30 requires completion of cabinet draft, all readings, and potential Bundesrat involvement. Obstacle: major German legislation typically takes 9-18 months. No Metaculus/Polymarket market. Estimated P: ~29%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Koalitionsvertrag CDU/CSU–SPD 2025: Bundeswehr-Reform und Wehrpflicht-Optionen verankert (Bundesregierung.de, März 2025)
- Bundesverteidigungsminister Pistorius: Selektivmodell nach schwedischem Vorbild (BMVg, 2025)
- Bundestag: Kein entsprechendes Wehrpflicht-Gesetz bislang verabschiedet (Bundestag.de, Stand Juli 2026)
- Politischer Zeitplan: Koalition anstrebt Beschluss vor Herbst-Etat-Runde (Handelsblatt/Spiegel, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
On July 20, 2026, Japanese voters elect the House of Councillors (Upper House). LDP/Komeito hold a slim upper-house coalition majority. CSIS analysis diagnoses 'prolonged instability' following the LDP's lower-house majority loss in October 2024. Despite PM Takaichi's landslide Lower House win in February 2026 (315/465 seats), headwinds remain: opposition parties (CDP, Nippon Ishin, Sanseito) exploit the ongoing LDP funds scandal (>50% of respondents cite it, Kyodo poll). No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found; structural assessment: ~68%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The National Electoral Jury (JNE) declared Fujimori the winner on July 3, 2026 with 50.1% of votes (~50,000 margin). Transition office opened. Argentine President Milei announced he will attend. Legal challenge deadlines have passed; no pending claims that could block handover on July 28 — Peru's Independence Day and traditional inauguration date. No Polymarket market found; probability of occurrence very high based on public sources.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The Fed funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75% as of July 2026 following the 2025–2026 easing cycle (FOMC statement June 17, 2026). CME FedWatch: 78.1% probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, but a notable 21.9% probability of a rate hike is priced in (persistent inflation from energy/Middle East). Polymarket: 78% probability of 0 additional cuts in 2026. Base case is a hold — a hike would be a surprise but is not ruled out.