Quebec Provincial Election (October 5, 2026): Québec Solidaire (Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois) wins fewer than 9 seats in the National Assembly (127 seats, confirmed by Élections Québec by October 6, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Québec Solidaire (QS) held 11 seats after the 2022 election with 15.4% of the vote. Current polls (Synopsis, September 27, 2026) give QS only 13%, with others showing 9–11%. Seat projections based on this vote distribution place QS at just ~5 seats — a drastic decline driven by the massive PQ wave drawing voters away from QS in Montreal's urban ridings. No direct Polymarket market for QS seat count found. With an expected value of ~5 seats, the probability of finishing below 9 seats is high but not trivial (tactical voting could preserve QS strongholds). Own calibration: 68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Synopsis Umfrage QS-Stimmenanteil: 13 % (27. September 2026, The Writ / La Presse)
- Poliwave.com QS-Umfragedurchschnitt Sept. 2026: 10–13 % Stimmenanteil
- Sitzprojektion QS: ~5 Sitze bei aktueller Stimmverteilung (The Writ, Oktober 2026)
- QS Wahlergebnis 2022: 11 Sitze, 15,4 % (Élections Québec, Oktober 2022)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
338Canada (as of October 1, 2026) projects 0 seats for the governing CAQ — despite ~23% vote share, which yields nothing in the first-past-the-post system without concentrated strongholds. qc125.com also forecasts fewer than 5 CAQ seats. The PQ leads with 26% and ~66 projected seats toward a majority government (majority threshold: 64). No prediction market offers a direct CAQ seat bet; models are consistent. The 18% counter-probability accounts for possible vote concentration in CAQ strongholds such as Terrebonne or Lévis, and model uncertainty. The result is independently verifiable: it would represent the steepest collapse of a majority party at the provincial level in Canadian history in generations.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Can Xue (born Deng Xiaohua) leads current bookmaker odds at 10/1 (implied ~9%). On Kalshi she ranks second at ~16% behind Anne Carson (18%). The 15% probability reflects the midpoint between bookmaker market (~9%) and Kalshi (~16%). Nobel Literature prizes are notoriously hard to predict; the Swedish Academy tends to alternate between Western and non-Western authors — after Han Kang (South Korea, 2024), another Asian laureate in 2026 would not be unusual. Can Xue would be the first Chinese Nobel Literature laureate.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket has ~57% for Bolsonaro, Kalshi likewise ~57%. Runoff polls show a statistical tie: Quaest 42%–42%, Datafolha 47%–45% for Lula. Lula won the first round (October 4) with ~48.4% vs. Bolsonaro's ~43.2%. Markets price in that Bolsonaro's right-wing voter base is more mobilized in the runoff and smaller candidates (Caiado/PSD ~5%) migrate predominantly to Bolsonaro. Slight downward adjustment to 55% from market level 57%: Lula's strength in the first round and the historical pattern of Brazilian first-round leaders frequently winning runoffs are factored in.