Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins the Brazilian presidential runoff on October 25, 2026 against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) (confirmed by TSE Brazil or AP by October 26, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket has ~57% for Bolsonaro, Kalshi likewise ~57%. Runoff polls show a statistical tie: Quaest 42%–42%, Datafolha 47%–45% for Lula. Lula won the first round (October 4) with ~48.4% vs. Bolsonaro's ~43.2%. Markets price in that Bolsonaro's right-wing voter base is more mobilized in the runoff and smaller candidates (Caiado/PSD ~5%) migrate predominantly to Bolsonaro. Slight downward adjustment to 55% from market level 57%: Lula's strength in the first round and the historical pattern of Brazilian first-round leaders frequently winning runoffs are factored in.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket Brasilien Präsidentschaftswahl 2026: Bolsonaro ~57%, Lula ~43% (Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
- Kalshi Brasilien Gesamtsieg-Wahrscheinlichkeit: Bolsonaro ~57% (Stand 3. Oktober 2026)
- Datafolha Stichwahl-Simulation: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 45% (24. September 2026)
- Erstwahlergebnis 4. Oktober 2026: Lula ~48,4%, Bolsonaro ~43,2% (TSE Brasilien / Bloomberg)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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✦ AI
Léger polls from September 2026 show the PCQ at 17–27% vote share province-wide, with a particularly strong regional foothold in the Quebec City belt. Polymarket prices a 14–16 seat outcome at 32% probability; cumulative probability for ≥12 seats is estimated at 68–72%. Quebec's first-past-the-post system strongly favors geographically concentrated parties, and PCQ candidates lead comfortably in their strongholds. The 12-seat threshold is set deliberately below the Polymarket central projection, providing a conservative margin.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices the probability of a Democratic majority in the US House of Representatives at 88–91% (as of approximately October 3, 2026). Consistently, Polymarket sees the Democratic Sweep (Senate + House) at 65% and the scenario 'Republican Senate / Democratic House' at 30% — summing to approximately 95% for Democratic House Control. This prediction complements the already-open US Senate forecast and covers the second chamber. Slight downward adjustment (91% → 88%) for model-specific uncertainty and historical midterm surprises. Not redundant to the open Senate prediction, but covers the same election date.