Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ, François Legault) wins fewer than 10 seats in the Nationalversammlung at the Québec provincial election on October 5, 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by October 6, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
338Canada (as of October 1, 2026) projects 0 seats for the governing CAQ — despite ~23% vote share, which yields nothing in the first-past-the-post system without concentrated strongholds. qc125.com also forecasts fewer than 5 CAQ seats. The PQ leads with 26% and ~66 projected seats toward a majority government (majority threshold: 64). No prediction market offers a direct CAQ seat bet; models are consistent. The 18% counter-probability accounts for possible vote concentration in CAQ strongholds such as Terrebonne or Lévis, and model uncertainty. The result is independently verifiable: it would represent the steepest collapse of a majority party at the provincial level in Canadian history in generations.
Data basis for this prediction
- 338Canada Quebec: 0 CAQ-Sitze projiziert bei 23 % Stimmenanteil (Stand 1.10.2026)
- qc125.com / The Writ (Éric Grenier): CAQ unter 5 Sitze erwartet (28.9.2026)
- CP24: Québec Wahlkampf letzte Woche — PQ führt mit 26 %; CAQ Kollaps (28.9.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket has ~57% for Bolsonaro, Kalshi likewise ~57%. Runoff polls show a statistical tie: Quaest 42%–42%, Datafolha 47%–45% for Lula. Lula won the first round (October 4) with ~48.4% vs. Bolsonaro's ~43.2%. Markets price in that Bolsonaro's right-wing voter base is more mobilized in the runoff and smaller candidates (Caiado/PSD ~5%) migrate predominantly to Bolsonaro. Slight downward adjustment to 55% from market level 57%: Lula's strength in the first round and the historical pattern of Brazilian first-round leaders frequently winning runoffs are factored in.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Can Xue (born Deng Xiaohua) leads current bookmaker odds at 10/1 (implied ~9%). On Kalshi she ranks second at ~16% behind Anne Carson (18%). The 15% probability reflects the midpoint between bookmaker market (~9%) and Kalshi (~16%). Nobel Literature prizes are notoriously hard to predict; the Swedish Academy tends to alternate between Western and non-Western authors — after Han Kang (South Korea, 2024), another Asian laureate in 2026 would not be unusual. Can Xue would be the first Chinese Nobel Literature laureate.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Léger polls from September 2026 show the PCQ at 17–27% vote share province-wide, with a particularly strong regional foothold in the Quebec City belt. Polymarket prices a 14–16 seat outcome at 32% probability; cumulative probability for ≥12 seats is estimated at 68–72%. Quebec's first-past-the-post system strongly favors geographically concentrated parties, and PCQ candidates lead comfortably in their strongholds. The 12-seat threshold is set deliberately below the Polymarket central projection, providing a conservative margin.