Moderaterna (M, Sweden) wins more than 17.0% of votes cast at the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The current PolitPro Election Trend (August 30, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.9% with 65 projected seats. The latest Demoskop poll (August 24) gives 17.2%; Ipsos (May 2026) gave 19.0%. The poll average is ~17.5%, placing the 17.0% threshold just below. Historically, Moderaterna slightly outperforms polls (well-mobilized core electorate). As the third-largest party behind S (~34%) and SD (~18–20%), the projection appears stable; falling below 17% would constitute an electoral disaster.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Sweden Election Trend 30.8.2026: Moderaterna 17,9 %, 65 Sitze projiziert
- PolitPro Demoskop-Umfrage Schweden 24.8.2026: Moderaterna 17,2 %, 63 Sitze
- Wikipedia 'Opinion polling 2026 Swedish general election': Ipsos Mai 2026 Moderaterna 19 %
Verdict: Hit
Moderaterna erzielte beim Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten (vorläufiges Ergebnis) ca. 19,8 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 17,0 %. Die Partei überperformte sogar gegenüber dem Umfragedurchschnitt von ~17,5 % und errang 70 Mandate. Quellen: Valmyndigheten (val.se), SVT Valresultat 2026 (valresultat.svt.se/2026/), Wikipedia 'Riksdagsvalet i Sverige 2026'.
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