Miljöpartiet (MP, Sweden) fails to clear the 4% electoral threshold at the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026, and does not enter parliament
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Swedish Greens received exactly 5.08% in 2022, narrowly entering parliament. Since then, polls show continued decline: current Swedish polling averages place MP at ~3.7–4.4% – right at the threshold boundary. The campaign environment favors bloc parties at the expense of smaller ones; Liberalerna (L) is also at risk per an open Cassandra prediction. No active Polymarket market for MP. Probability ~42% from polling volatility and trend extrapolation.
Data basis for this prediction
- Riksdag-Wahl 2022: Miljöpartiet 5,08 % (Valmyndigheten, 11.09.2022)
- Schweden Umfrageschnitt Jul/Aug 2026: MP ca. 3,7–4,4 % (Polling-Aggregatoren, Aug 2026)
- Liberalerna-Sperrklausel-Vorhersage (scheitert an 4 %) bereits offen (Cassandra.news)
Verdict: Miss
Miljöpartiet erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 ca. 6,1–6,2 % der Stimmen (laut politpro.eu/Wikipedia) und gewann rund 22 Sitze – damit lag die Partei deutlich über der 4%-Sperrklausel. Die Prognose eines Scheiterns beruhte auf Umfragewerten von 3,7–4,4 %, die sich als zu pessimistisch erwiesen; offenbar mobilisierte MP im Endspurt oder profitierte von taktischen Stimmen, was zu einem deutlichen Erholungseffekt gegenüber den Pre-Election-Polls führte.
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