🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Miljöpartiet (MP, Sweden) wins more than 6.5% of votes cast at the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

70%

PolitPro Election Trend (as of August 2026) shows Miljöpartiet at 7.1% — comfortably above the 4% Riksdag threshold. The party has recovered from its 2022 historic low of 5.1%; the forecast model projects 26 Riksdag seats. No open Cassandra prediction covers Miljöpartiet. With a polling average of 7.1% and typical Swedish polling uncertainty of ±1.2 pp, the probability of finishing above 6.5% is approximately 68–72%. Polymarket does not list a separate MP market.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Schweden: Miljöpartiet (MP) 7,1 % (Stand August 2026, politpro.eu/en/sweden)
PolitPro Sweden 2026 Parliament Forecast: MP 26 Sitze prognostiziert (August 2026)
val.se: Riksdag-Wahl Schweden, 13. September 2026 — offizielle schwedische Wahlbehörde
Wikipedia: 2022 Swedish general election — MP 5,1 % (historische Vergleichsbasis)

Verdict: Miss

Miljöpartiet erzielte laut Valmyndigheten (val.se, offizielle Ergebnisse) 6,12 % der abgegebenen Stimmen (≈ 414.307 Stimmen, 22 Mandate) – damit klar unterhalb der Schwelle von 6,5 %. Die Partei verbesserte sich zwar gegenüber 2022 (5,1 %), blieb aber rund 0,4 Prozentpunkte unter dem Zielwert. Das Prognosemodell hatte mit 7,1 % den tatsächlichen Wert um fast einen ganzen Prozentpunkt überschätzt. Quellen: val.se (offizielle Ergebnisse 2026), en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election

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