📈 Economy · Next Month

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) beats the adjusted Q2-2026 EPS consensus of approx. USD 7.18 per share on July 29, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

74%

Meta reports on July 29, 2026, after market close. The adjusted EPS consensus per MarketBeat and TipRanks stands at approx. USD 7.18 per share; revenue consensus is ~USD 60.18 bn (guidance: USD 58–61 bn). Meta beat the EPS consensus in each of the past four quarters. Drivers: AI-powered ad monetisation (Meta Advantage+), growing Instagram/WhatsApp user base, Llama-4-based B2B AI services, and declining infrastructure costs per user. No Polymarket equivalent for EPS beat; historical beat rate (~80%) supports the expectation.

Data basis for this prediction

Meta Q2-2026 EPS-Konsens: 7,18 USD je Aktie (MarketBeat / TipRanks, Stand 13.07.2026)
Meta Q2-2026 Berichtstermin: 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss; Umsatzkonsens ~60,18 Mrd. USD (financecalendar.com / catacal.com)
Meta Q2-2026 Guidance: 58–61 Mrd. USD Umsatz (Meta Platforms Investor Relations)
Yahoo Finance: 'Know Ahead of Meta Platforms Earnings Release' (finance.yahoo.com, 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Meta meldete am 29. Juli 2026 einen Q2-EPS von 6,18 USD – ein Verfehlen des Konsenses von ca. 7,17–7,23 USD um rund 14 %. Der Umsatz von 60,80 Mrd. USD übertraf den Konsens leicht (+28 % YoY). Der EPS-Miss war primär auf zwei Einmalbelastungen zurückzuführen: (1) 2,4 Mrd. USD Rückstellungen für rechtliche Verbindlichkeiten und (2) 1,18 Mrd. USD Abfindungskosten im Zuge eines Stellenabbaus von ~8.000 Stellen. Quellen: 24/7 Wall St. (https://247wallst.com/companies/meta/earnings/), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262063667-meta-stock-crashing-after-q2-2026-earnings-eps-miss-capex-tradingkey), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-misses-on-q2-earnings-stock-tumbles-121325403.html). Die Aktie fiel daraufhin ~8,75 %. Es war der erste EPS-Miss nach einer langen Serie aufeinanderfolgender Übertreffer.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026