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📈 Economy · Next Month

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats the adjusted Q2-2026 EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.82 per share on July 30, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
73%

Amazon reports on July 30, 2026, after market close; adjusted EPS consensus is ~USD 1.82 per share, revenue consensus ~USD 196 bn (MarketBeat, July 13, 2026). Amazon beat the EPS consensus in seven of the last eight quarters. AWS remains the margin driver with strong growth from AI infrastructure requests; the Advertising segment grows >20% YoY. Prime Day Q3 is not included, but spring effects and cost discipline support margins. No Polymarket equivalent for Amazon EPS beat.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Amazon Q2-2026 EPS-Konsens: 1,82 USD je Aktie (MarketBeat, Stand 13.07.2026)
  • Amazon Q2-2026 Berichtstermin: 30. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss (financecalendar.com)
  • Amazon Q2-2026 Umsatzkonsens: ca. 196 Mrd. USD (MarketBeat / Yahoo Finance)
  • ValueSense.io: 'Amazon Q2 Earnings – Revenue, AWS Beat' – Q2-Vorschau (valuesense.io, 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Amazon berichtete am 30. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen bereinigten EPS von ca. 1,97 USD je Aktie – deutlich über dem Konsens von ~1,82 USD. Der Umsatz lag bei 200,6 Mrd. USD (vs. ~196 Mrd. USD erwartet). Der GAAP-EPS von 5,75 USD war durch einen Anthropic-Investment-Gewinn von ~53,4 Mrd. USD verzerrt, die operative Stärke war jedoch real: AWS wuchs 37 % YoY (schnellstes Wachstum seit 2021), und das Advertising-Segment entwickelte sich stark. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein. Quellen: MarketBeat-Earnings-Report (AMZN Q2 2026), Shacknews, CNBC Q2 2026 Earnings Report, TradingKey.
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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

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US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%
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Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%
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