🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): FDP fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by state returning officer MV)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

87%

Forsa (24 August 2026) measures the FDP in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 3% – 200 basis points below the threshold. Infratest dimap (9 July 2026) also shows the FDP clearly below the bar. The FDP has not been in the Schwerin parliament since 2011 and has failed to clear 5% in any MV election since then. The structural loss of liberal voters in eastern Germany to AfD and BSW leaves no trend reversal in sight. No dedicated prediction market available; historical evidence and current polling support a probability >85%.

Data basis for this prediction

Forsa MV-Landtagswahl-Umfrage: FDP 3% (24. August 2026, t-online.de)
Infratest dimap MV: FDP unter 5% (9. Juli 2026)
MV Landtagswahl 2021 Ergebnis: FDP 2,0%, nicht im Landtag (Landeswahlleiter MV)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist vollständig eingetreten. Die FDP erhielt bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 1,0 % der gültigen Zweitstimmen und scheiterte damit deutlich an der 5%-Sperrklausel. Sie verlor alle 5 Sitze aus der Wahl 2021 und ist nicht im neuen Landtag vertreten. Das endgültige amtliche Ergebnis wurde am 30. September 2026 vom Landeswahlleiter Dr. Christian Boden bestätigt. Quellen: Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-endgueltiges-amtliches-wahlergebnis-steht-fest), Wikipedia (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026), bpb.de (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/).

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