🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Returning Officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

87%

Latest INSA poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (August 4–11, 2026, 1,000 respondents): FDP 3% – well below the 5% threshold. The FDP has not been represented in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament since 2011 (2021 result: 2.4%). Nationally, the FDP has struggled chronically in eastern Germany since the coalition collapse (late 2024) and loss of Bundestag seats (2025). A +2 pp recovery in four weeks without a clear mobilisation trigger is statistically unrealistic. Very high forecast confidence; residual uncertainty buffer for unexpected late polling swings and election-day turnout.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV 4.–11. August 2026 (Nordkurier/t-online.de): FDP 3%
Wikipedia: Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 – Umfrageübersicht
Wahlrecht.de: MV Sonntagsfragen-Aggregator 2026 (Stand August 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die FDP erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 1,0 % der Stimmen – weit unter der 5%-Sperrklausel. Das endgültige Ergebnis wurde vom Landeswahlleiter Dr. Christian Boden am 30. September 2026 bestätigt. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein; tatsächlich blieb die FDP sogar noch deutlich unter dem in der Umfrage gemessenen Wert von 3 %. Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026, politik-mv.de/2026/09/30/das-endgueltige-wahlergebnis/

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