Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke earns more than 5.0% of votes and enters the state parliament (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Die Linke received 9.9% in the 2021 MV state election. In Saxony-Anhalt, Pollytix polls show Die Linke at 13% (August 2026) — significantly above 5% despite nationwide decline and BSW competition. MV has a historically deeper left-wing base than western states. The main risk is BSW attrition; however, the BSW >5% open prediction for MV does not imply a Linke collapse. No conflict with existing open MV predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- MV Landtagswahl 2021: Die Linke 9,9 % (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
- Pollytix Sachsen-Anhalt Aug 2026: Die Linke 13 % – Referenzpunkt Ostdeutschland (t-online.de, Stand ~Aug 2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl 2026 (wahlrecht.de, Stand 27.08.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Linke erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 6,5 % der Stimmen und zog damit klar über der 5-%-Hürde in den Landtag ein. Die Partei sicherte sich 5 von 71 Sitzen. Die Vorhersage trat ein. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), Wikipedia 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026', ZDF-Heute Ergebnisgrafiken.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.