Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives less than 12.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Returning Officer)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The CDU polls at only 10% in current MV election surveys (INSA, August 2026) – 2 percentage points below the 12.0% prediction threshold. AfD (36%) and SPD (29%) dominate; the CDU is structurally weakened in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. It received 13.3% there in 2021; current polling shows a further decline of approximately 3 percentage points. Even with a statistical error of ±2%, the 12% threshold is hard to breach. No Polymarket market for German state parliaments available. Forecast: 87%.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Umfrage MV August 2026: CDU 10 %, AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 % (Stand Aug 2026)
- dawum.de: MV Landtagswahl Wahltrend 2026 (Stand 26.08.2026)
- t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 – Wahlumfrage Trend (Aug 2026)
- Landtagswahl MV 2021: CDU 13,3 % (Landeswahlleiter MV, historischer Vergleich)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.