Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Landtag
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current poll average for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (aggregated August 2026): BSW at 4.1% — below the 5% threshold. One individual survey (Civey, June 2026) showed 8.0%, indicating high variance. BSW has no established state chapter in MV and weak local infrastructure. Nationally BSW polls at ~5–6%, but in MV, where SPD and AfD dominate, mobilization potential is significantly lower than in Thuringia or Brandenburg (BSW there 15.8% resp. 13.5% in 2024). The 'BSW fails 5%' scenario is most probable, but uncertain.
Data basis for this prediction
- MV Wahlumfragen Aggregat August 2026: BSW Ø 4,1% (politpro.eu / Wahlkreisprognose, mehrere Institute)
- Civey Einzelumfrage MV Juni 2026: BSW 8,0% (Hochausschlag, Civey)
- BSW Thüringen September 2024: 15,8%; BSW Brandenburg September 2024: 13,5% (Landeswahlleiter)
- Offene Vorhersagen MV: AfD >30%, SPD >25%, SPD-Koalition ohne AfD (Cassandra.news)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.