🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): AfD receives more than 35.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

All three current polls consistently place the AfD at 35–36%: INSA (August 13, 2026): 36%; Infratest dimap for NDR (July 9, 2026): 36%; INSA (June 22, 2026): 35%. The AfD is MV's strongest party, leading SPD (incumbent under MP Schwesig, 28–29%) by ~7 points. No prediction market available. Historically AfD results in MV track closely with polling averages. The 35.0% threshold sits just below the polling average of 35.7%, yielding a conservative assessment.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA MV-Umfrage: AfD 36%, SPD 29% (veröffentlicht 13. August 2026, wahlrecht.de)
Infratest dimap NDR MV-Umfrage: AfD 36%, SPD 29% (veröffentlicht 9. Juli 2026, dawum.de)
INSA MV-Umfrage: AfD 35%, SPD 28% (veröffentlicht 22. Juni 2026)
dawum.de Umfrage-Aggregat MV 2026: AfD Schnitt 35,7% (Stand Aug 25, 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte laut endgültigem amtlichem Wahlergebnis (Landeswahlleiter MV, 30. September 2026) 38,2% der gültigen Zweitstimmen – deutlich über der Vorhersageschwelle von 35,0%. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Die AfD wurde stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5%), während CDU (4,9%) und FDP (1,0%) an der 5%-Hürde scheiterten. Quellen: Landtag MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-endgueltiges-amtliches-wahlergebnis-steht-fest), bpb (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/).

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