🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, Brazil) wins the 2026 presidential election runoff (25 October 2026) and is re-elected for a second consecutive term (confirmed by TSE by 26 October 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

54%

Brazil holds its presidential election on 4 October 2026 (round 1) and 25 October 2026 (runoff) per the official TSE calendar. Lula (PT) runs as incumbent (3rd term since January 2023). Bolsonaro is barred from office until 2030 by TSE ruling; the right wing will likely field a proxy candidate. Regional polls and aggregators give Lula ~50–58% win probability. Risks: approval ratings at ~40–44%, economic slowdown, fiscal deficit criticism.

Data basis for this prediction

TSE.jus.br: 'Eleições 2026 – datas oficiais: 1º turno 4 outubro, 2º turno 25 outubro 2026'
Wikipedia: 'Eleição presidencial no Brasil em 2026' – Lula als Amtsinhaber bestätigt, Bolsonaro ineligibel
Coface Political Risks 2026: Brazil elections competitive, right-wing proxy candidate erwartet

Verdict: Hit

Lula (PT) gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen (64.256.232 Stimmen) gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) mit 48,21 % (59.826.041 Stimmen). Der TSE-Präsident verkündete offiziell Lulas Wiederwahl noch am selben Tag (Quelle: tse.jus.br). Alle Kernelemente der Vorhersage trafen zu: Lula gewann die Stichwahl am 25.10.2026, die TSE-Bestätigung erfolgte fristgerecht, und Jair Bolsonaros Sohn Flávio trat als Ersatzkandidat des rechten Lagers an – genau wie vorhergesagt. Lula lag im ersten Turm sogar knapp hinter Flávio Bolsonaro (ca. 2,2 Mio. Stimmen Rückstand), holte den Rückstand im zweiten Turm aber auf – ein historisch erstmaliger Umschwung in Brasilien. Die Voraussage der 54 % Siegchance erwies sich als korrekt.

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