🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, BRA) Wins the Brazilian Presidential Runoff on October 25, 2026 and Is Re-Elected (confirmed by TSE Brasil or Reuters/AFP by October 26, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. August 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

56%

Polymarket gives Lula 56% overall win probability in the 2026 election (Polymarket.com, Aug 31, 2026). Runoff polls show a statistical tie: Quaest (Lula 43% / Flávio Bolsonaro 40%), Nexus and PoderData (Lula +1pt), Vox Brasil (Bolsonaro +0.6pt) — all within the margin of error. Lula leads the first round with ~38% vs. ~31% for Flávio Bolsonaro (polls Aug 18–27, 2026, Al Jazeera / Rio Times). Structural advantages for Lula: incumbent bonus, Bolsa Família program, solid GDP growth. Polarization is extremely high; Bolsonaro camp has strong mobilization capacity. Calibration at Polymarket anchor: 56%.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Lula gewinnt Brasilien-Präsidentschaftswahl 2026: 56 % (Polymarket.com, 31.8.2026)
Quaest-Umfrage: Lula 43 % / Bolsonaro 40 % Stichwahl-Simulation (Al Jazeera, 15.8.2026)
Vox Brasil: Bolsonaro +0,6 % in Stichwahl-Simulation (Rio Times Online, August 2026)
Erste-Runde-Umfragen: Lula ~38 %, F. Bolsonaro ~31 % (Al Jazeera/Rio Times, 18.–27.8.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Lula gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen gegen Flávio Bolsonaro (48,21 %), Vorsprung ~4,4 Mio. Stimmen. Das TSE bestätigte das Ergebnis noch am Wahlabend, internationale Medien (NPR, CNN, CNBC, Vatican News) berichteten übereinstimmend. Bemerkenswert: Lula lag im ersten Wahlgang hinter Flávio Bolsonaro – und gewann dennoch die Stichwahl, was historisch einmalig in Brasilien ist. Die Vorhersage (56 % Siegwahrscheinlichkeit) trat ein. Quellen: NPR (25.10.2026), CNBC (26.10.2026), Vatican News (25.10.2026), TRE-SP.

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Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

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