Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (Sept 20, 2026): CDU Receives Less Than 10.0% of Votes
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
All current polls show the CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern well below 10%: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sept 11) 7%, Infratest dimap (Sept 10) 7%, INSA (Sept 10) 7%, pollytix (Sept 10) 6%. Only outlier: Forsa (Sept 2) at 10%. Dawum aggregate: ~7.2%. The CDU has collapsed following repeated leadership crises and losses to both the AfD and SPD. Exceeding 10% would require a positive polling error of at least +2.8 percentage points relative to the average.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: CDU 7% MV (11.09.2026)
- Infratest dimap: CDU 7% MV (10.09.2026)
- INSA: CDU 7% MV (10.09.2026)
- dawum.de MV Umfragen-Aggregat (Stand 11.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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