Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 29.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by state electoral authority MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
·
Predicted for 21. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Current INSA election trend (Europe Elects, Sept 8–15, 2026) puts SPD at 32–37% in MV, with AfD slightly ahead at 36–37%. SPD governed MV for decades; even as runner-up, every poll is well above 29%. Only a historically unprecedented collapse of 3–8 points from all recent surveys would miss this threshold. No prediction market available; conservative floor derived from polling corridor.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Wahltrend MV, Europe Elects (@EuropeElects), Stand 15.09.2026: SPD 32–37 %
- Wahlrecht.de: MV-Umfragen-Aggregat Sept 2026 — SPD Ø ~33–35 %
- PolitPro MV: AfD 36–37 %, SPD 32–35 %, Linke 9–10 %, CDU 6–7 % (Sept 2026)
- Wikipedia: Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 (Umfragenübersicht, abgerufen 18.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 17, 2026) puts LDPR under Leonid Slutsky at 12.8% (= 63 seats). The 10.0% threshold is 2.8 points below the survey figure. Even significant state-managed count adjustments in favor of United Russia are unlikely to push LDPR below 10%, as it also holds direct-mandate seats. United Russia polled at 46% (existing >47% prediction thus at risk), KPRF at 15.8%. No Polymarket market available.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls consistently show Die Linke in MV well above the 8.5% threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15) 10%, Infratest dimap (Sep 9) 9%, Forsa (Aug 21–27) 11%, pollytix (Sep 8–9) 12%; weighted trend average 10.2%. Despite the BSW split (2024), Die Linke retains a stable voter base in MV. The 1.7 percentage point buffer between threshold and poll average acts as a cushion; even a full standard deviation downward swing (±2–3pp historical) would leave the result above 8.5%. Polymarket has no dedicated line for Die Linke's vote share; the MV election-winner market has SPD at 51 cents (leading).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Latest poll: Datafolha (Sept 17, 2026) shows Lula at 39% vs Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round. Other surveys: Quaest (Aug 2026): Lula 38% vs Bolsonaro 31%; AtlasIntel (Sept 17): Lula 44.1% vs Bolsonaro 41.7%. Neither candidate will reach 50%+ outright; a runoff on October 25 is virtually certain. Polymarket gives Bolsonaro a 55.6% chance to win the overall election, but that market concerns the runoff winner, not first-round leader. Lula has historically finished first in every first round he contested (2002, 2006, 2022). Risk: late Bolsonaro mobilization, but closing a six-point gap in under two weeks is very unlikely.